July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
Exchange: The Vain Hope for “Correct” Timing
The history of many of today’s established democracies shows that “out-of-sequence” democratization can lead to eventual success.
Section: Article
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
Exchange: Misunderstanding Gradualism
Unlike pessimistic scholars and recalcitrant autocrats, most ordinary citizens are inclined to take the risks of choosing democracy when they can.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
Personalizing Power in Uganda
For more than two decades, President Yoweri Museveni has been building an authoritarian regime that answers closely to his personal will.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
When Will the Chinese People Be Free?
Rising levels of wealth and schooling make it highly likely that China will be a "Partly Free" country by 2015 and a "Free" one ten years after that.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
The Democracy Barometers (Part I): Authoritarian Nostalgia in Asia
East Asia’s “third-wave” democracies are in distress, and the economic success of nondemocratic regimes in the region creates a tough standard for comparison.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
The Democracy Barometers (Part I): Formal versus Informal Institutions in Africa
Survey data indicate that Africans support democracy and its formal institutions, but also point to the importance of the informal realm, particularly when formal institutions fail to meet popular expectations.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
The Democracy Barometers (Part I): The Rise of Populism and the Left in Latin America
By world standards, Latin Americans ideologically are slightly to the right. But their attitudes are moving leftward, a trend with potential implications for democratic stability in the region.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
The Democracy Barometers (Part I): Learning to Support New Regimes in Europe
After a decade and a half, how do citizens of postcommunist Europe now feel toward their new governing regimes?
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
The Institutionalization of Political Power in Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa has been traditionally depicted as a place where formal institutional rules are largely irrelevant-yet in the past fifteen years these rules have come to matter, and this trend is unlikely to reverse.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
The Decline of the African Military Coup
Since the early 1990s, many African countries have undergone political liberalization, and so far this trend has been accompanied by a significant drop in the incidence of military coups.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
Communism’s Many Legacies in East-Central Europe
Democracy is facing hard times in the region, but the shape of the problems varies according to the differing informal legacies of communism in individual countries.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
Toward Muslim Democracies
About two-thirds of the world's Muslims live under governments chosen through competitive elections. The remaining third lives mostly in the Arab world, a region that poses the hardest challenges for democratization.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
The Challenge of Closely Fought Elections
Closely fought elections are often fraught with conflict, splitting societies asunder. How can democracy survive such rough and close contests?
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
India’s Unlikely Democracy: Six Decades of Independence
By most theoretical accounts, Indian democracy should not even exist. Yet, despite serious challenges, it shows signs of enduring and even deepening.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
India’s Unlikely Democracy: Economic Growth and Political Accommodation
So far, economic liberalization and globalization have not served to undermine India's democracy. Indeed, they may even be strengthening it.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
India’s Unlikely Democracy: Civil Society Versus Corruption
Pervasive corruption hampers India's democracy, yet anticorruption movements may be helping to improve governmental accountability.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
India’s Unlikely Democracy: The Rise of Judicial Sovereignty
India's courts have been playing a growing role in the country's political life. Yet even as judicial interventions have become more sweeping, the principles undergirding their legitimacy have become less clear.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
A Wake-Up Call in Afghanistan
Much has been achieved both in the war against the Taliban and in the larger struggle to create a democratic Afghanistan, but dire problems remain.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
Venezuela: Crowding Out the Opposition
President Hugo Cháez's regime demonstrates how a public desire for change plus state resources can be exploited to undermine democracy.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
Another Russia? Battling KGB, Inc.
The Putin regime is plunging Russia into a deepening crisis. It is time to end the fiction that today's Russia is a democracy.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
Another Russia? After the Leviathan
There is a future for democracy in Russia, but it may have to wait until the people begin to feel the problems created by the current system.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
Another Russia? Putin’s Invented Opposition
The Kremlin's ultimate need for democratic legitimacy, both at home and abroad, may be the key vulnerability of the Putin regime.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
The 2006 Freedom House Survey: The Pushback Against Democracy
Although the overall state of democracy in the world differed little from that in 2005, a series of worrisome trends seem to be contributing to a stagnation of freedom.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
Voting for Change in the DRC
The holding of competitive elections in this vast, strife-torn country must count as a significant achievement, even though voters signaled their disaffection with the entire array of political elites that had been ruling them.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
Montenegro: A Miracle in the Balkans?
Tiny Montenegro gained its independence in a referendum in May 2006. What forces lay behind its completely peaceful break from its much larger neighbor, Serbia?
January 2007, Volume 18, Issue 1
The Perpetual Crises of Democracy
Democracy is and always will be in some kind of crisis, for it is constantly redirecting its citizens’ gaze from a more or less unsatisfactory present toward a future of still unfulfilled possibilities.
January 2007, Volume 18, Issue 1
How Democracies Emerge: The “Sequencing” Fallacy
Many critics of democracy promotion assert that the rule of law and a well-functioning state should be in place before a society democratizes, but this strategy of "sequencing" is based on a set of mistaken premises.
January 2007, Volume 18, Issue 1
How Democracies Emerge: Lessons from Europe
Those who argue that democracy requires preconditions often cite the example of gradual unfolding set by the established democracies. A glance at history, however, shows that even today's most placid democracies have "backstories" as turbulent as anything found in the developing world today.
January 2007, Volume 18, Issue 1
Revolution Reconsidered
The recent "color revolutions" in the former Soviet Union should lead us to reassess the idea of revolution and also to consider the weaknesses of the concept of "democratic transition.
January 2007, Volume 18, Issue 1
Political Engineering in the Asia-Pacific
The 1997 financial crisis undermined the argument for a putative “Asian-style democracy” that prioritized economic development over political liberalization. Yet recent electoral and other reforms have set the stage for the emergence of a genuine “Asian model” of democracy.
January 2007, Volume 18, Issue 1
The Mexican Standoff: Taught to Protest, Learning to Lose
A crucial requirement of government by consent is the willingness of defeated candidates and parties to concede when the voters' verdict goes against them. Events in Mexico following its July 2006 presidential election have sorely tested that country's young democracy in this regard.
January 2007, Volume 18, Issue 1
The Mexican Standoff: The Mobilization of Distrust
Mexico’s system of electoral governance and dispute settlement worked reasonably well, yet it created too much noise and too many needless invitations to distrust. The failures observed were less those of institutions than of actors. The loser reacted deplorably, but none of those involved acted in a manner beyond reproach.
January 2007, Volume 18, Issue 1
The Mexican Standoff: Looking to the Future
Examining Mexico’s electoral rules, political institutions, and the ways in which they interact with one another can tell us much about how current difficulties developed and how they might be resolved.
January 2007, Volume 18, Issue 1
Malaysia: Turnover Without Change
When Abdullah Ahmad Badawi succeeded Mahathir Mohamad as prime minister in 2003, many expected far-reaching change in Malaysia. So far, however, turnover at the top has not led to significant democratic progress.
January 2007, Volume 18, Issue 1
The Case for Presidential Term Limits
Presidential term limits have spread across the world, but in many countries presidents and their allies seek to circumvent or eliminate them. Advocates of democracy must protect this institution, as its role in democratization may be far more powerful than is conventionally recognized.
January 2007, Volume 18, Issue 1
Pathways from Authoritarianism
Does the nature of an authoritarian regime affect the potential for democratic transition? Data since 1972 indicate that some kinds of authoritarian regimes are more likely to democratize than others.
January 2007, Volume 18, Issue 1
Candidate Selection: The Choice Before the Choice
Voters casting ballots are an indispensable element of free government, but who decides which names go on those ballots? Although methods of candidate selection have received surprisingly little study by political scientists, they merit the attention of students of democracy everywhere.
October 2006, Volume 17, Issue 4
Favorable Conditions and Electoral Revolutions
Over the past decade, a series of "electoral revolutions" has taken place from Slovakia to Kyrgyzstan. Why has this path to democratization been especially common in the postcommunist region?
October 2006, Volume 17, Issue 4
A “Left Turn” in Latin America? Populism, Socialism, and Democratic Institutions
Progressive politics in Latin America inevitably draws from the legacies of socialism and populism, but these categories are not very useful today. Can we find better tools for differentiating Latin America's "multiple lefts"?
October 2006, Volume 17, Issue 4
A “Left Turn” in Latin America? Explaining the Left’s Resurgence
As leftist victories accumulate, it becomes increasingly clear that they represent a regional trend. But why is this trend happening now, and how far will it spread?
October 2006, Volume 17, Issue 4
A “Left Turn” in Latin America? The Urgent Need for Labor Law Reform
Latin America must find a way to include its newly urbanized informal workers in more regular channels of economic and political participation. Updating outmoded labor laws is a key to accomplishing this task.
October 2006, Volume 17, Issue 4
A “Left Turn” in Latin America? Problems of Success in Chile
Chile's new Socialist president Michelle Bachelet will seek to maintain the country's socioeconomic progress, but her attempt to cure growing alienation from the traditional parties could create a new set of problems.
October 2006, Volume 17, Issue 4
A “Left Turn” in Latin America? Colombia Hews to the Path of Change
In reelecting President Alvaro Uribe by a landslide, Colombia's voters opted for continuity. But they chose continuity with an administration that has carried out a major series of policy innovations.
October 2006, Volume 17, Issue 4
A “Left Turn” in Latin America? An Unlikely Comeback in Peru
An unexpected winner emerged in Peru's close-fought presidential election. Alan García's earlier presidential term was calamitous at best, and yet he may now be the harbinger of a brighter future for Peru's democracy.
October 2006, Volume 17, Issue 4
History Repeats Itself in Pakistan
If there is a common thread through Pakistan's checkered history, it is the army's perception of itself as the country's only viable institution. As the next parliamentary elections approach, what does the future hold for democratic hopes in Pakistan?
October 2006, Volume 17, Issue 4
Constitutional Courts: A Primer for Decision Makers
Courts empowered to overturn legislative acts have spread rapidly in recent years. If carefully designed and limited, constitutional courts may aid democratic consolidation, but if not, they can become objects of political strife, impediments to democracy, and bad influences on legal development.
October 2006, Volume 17, Issue 4
Belarus: Learning From Defeat
The Belarusian presidential election of March 2006 appeared to be an exercise in meaninglessness, while the protests against manipulation by the Lukashenka regime seemed a study in futility. But appearances can deceive.
October 2006, Volume 17, Issue 4
Governance and Development
Embedding a vibrant market economy into strong democratic political institutions is the best way to ensure that political and economic empowerment play complementary roles improving the lives of citizens around the world.
October 2006, Volume 17, Issue 4
Exchange: Arab Political Pacts: An Unlikely Scenario
Middle Eastern realities and scholarship on democratic transitions both suggest that formally negotiated deals between authoritarian rulers and liberal opposition forces are unlikely to provide the path to change in the Arab world.
October 2006, Volume 17, Issue 4
Exchange: Mistaking Data for “Theory”
We should neither be too hasty to discount the prodemocratic political ferment in the Arab world, nor be fooled into thinking that Islamist groups will play a constructive part in democratic transitions.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
Universal Values and Muslim Democracy
The desire for freedom and self-government is written in human hearts everywhere; in this there can be no "clash of civilizations." Claims that Islam is inherently hostile to democracy represent an unwarranted surrender to fundamentalist arguments; we should engage with a broad spectrum of Muslim groups, but without compromising our commitment to freedom and democracy.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
The Crisis of Representation in the Andes
Despite a significant expansion of citizenship over the last few decades, the Andean nations face a severe crisis of democratic representation. The root of the problem lies not in the mechanisms of representation but in poor state performance.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
Reforming Intelligence: Democracy and Effectiveness
Reforming national intelligence communities is a critical, if often overlooked, task facing democratizing countries. Happily, intelligence agencies brought under civilian, democratic control may also becomes better at their core job of protecting free nations from deadly threats.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
Reforming Intelligence: South Africa After Apartheid
On the surface, intelligence-sector reform since the fall of apartheid has been a model of success, but the growing politicization of security-sector forces by the ruling ANC may pose a threat to the consolidation of South Africa's young democracy.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
Reforming Intelligence: Identity and Security in Taiwan
As Taiwan has slowly democratized, so has its intelligence and security system been transformed—yet issues of national identity and the conflict with China present continuing challenges.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
Reforming Intelligence: Russia’s Failure
Much like other institutions in post-Soviet Russia, the intelligence and security services have yet to make a transition to real democratic control, and remain infused with the authoritarian tendencies of their Soviet predecessors.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
Corruption: Diagnosis and Treatment
Successfully fighting corruption in developing and postcommunist countries requires far more than instituting best practices from advanced democracies. Corruption first must be properly diagnosed; in some cases it can be effectively treated only by attacking the distribution of power itself.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
Nigeria: Completing Obasanjo’s Legacy
By graciously accepting the defeat of a constitutional amendment that would have enabled him to seek a third term, President Olusegun Obasanjo has solidified his contribution to Nigerian democracy, but much remains to be done.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
The Palestinian Elections: Sweeping Victory, Uncertain Mandate
By giving Hamas a parliamentary majority, Palestinian voters were neither endorsing extremism nor rejecting the peace process. Other Palestinian institutions have the potential to restrain Hamas, but there is a risk that it will turn to Iran or Syria for help.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
The Palestinian Elections: Beyond Hamas and Fatah
January’s remarkably free and fair parliamentary elections broke the PLO’s longstanding monopoly over Palestinian politics. Given Fatah’s disarray and the difficulties facing Hamas, there is now a window of opportunity for a third and avowedly liberal-democratic option to emerge.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
Election Rigging and How to Fight It
Authoritarian regimes around the world hold elections and manipulate them every step of the way. How do we understand and work around the challenges these regimes pose to what should be a clean and democratic electoral process?
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
The Future of South Africa’s Party System
The ruling African National Congress has been an overwhelming presence in the politics of post-apartheid South Africa. The country's dominant-party system, despite its dangers, may be the strongest buttress for democracy.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
The Dark Side of Globalization
A review of Illicit: How Smugglers, Traffickers, and Copycats are Hijacking the Global Economy, by Moisés Naím.
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
Identity, Immigration, and Liberal Democracy
Contemporary liberal democracies, especially in Western Europe, face a major challenge in integrating Muslim immigrants as citizens of pluralistic societies.
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
The “Mystery” of the Soviet Collapse
There was nothing inevitable about the unraveling of Soviet communism. The role played by individuals such as Aleksandr Yakovlev was crucial.
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
New Threats to Freedom: The Assault on Democracy Assistance
Authoritarians are stepping up their offensive against democracy promotion, and democracy-assistance organizations will have to meet the challenge.
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
New Threats to Freedom: Democracy’s “Doubles”
From Putin's Russia to Chávez's Venezuela, regimes that claim to be democracies but act like autocracies are emerging as a major long-term threat to freedom.
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
The Debacle in Côte d’Ivoire
Despite hopes that 2005 would see an end to hostilities between rebels and government forces, neither disarmament nor elections took place. How did this once-prosperous country end up on the verge of anarchy and disaster?
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
Electoral Systems Today: A Global Snapshot
A wide variety of electoral systems is used around the world, but in recent years the trend has been toward systems based upon greater proportionality.
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
Electoral Systems Today: Iraq’s Year of Voting Dangerously
Iraq’s three elections in 2005 highlighted the role—but also the limits—of electoral-system design in managing potentially polarizing divisions.
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
Electoral Systems Today: The Curious Case of Afghanistan
Afghanistan’s electoral system is both unusual and unsuited to the country’s political circumstances. How was it chosen and what are its effects on the country’s politics?
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
Electoral Systems Today: The Politics of Reform in Japan and Taiwan
For decades, Japan and Taiwan elected their legislatures using the single nontransferable vote. Recently, however, both countries adopted new electoral systems. What explains this trend?
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
What Really Happened in Kyrgyzstan?
The March 2005 “Tulip Revolution” that toppled President Askar Akeyev is often grouped with the “color revolutions” in Georgia and Ukraine, but in many ways the Kyrgyz case was unique.
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
Azerbaijan’s Frustrating Elections
The 2005 elections were marked by massive fraud, but the democratic world mostly looked the other way. Azerbaijani society remains receptive to democracy, but the regime clearly has other plans—and will soon have massive oil wealth to fund them.
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
Exchange: Getting Costa Rica Right
The country’s recent political travails are due not to collusion between the two major parties but to the increasing difficulty of reaching interparty agreements.
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
Exchange: Different Times, Different Demands
In recent decades, Costa Rican society has evolved and become less deferential. Political arrangements that worked well in the past no longer meet the country’s needs.
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
Stronger Legislatures, Stronger Democracies
Evidence from the postcommunist countries shows that the strength of the legislature may be the institutional key to democratic consolidation.
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
Getting to Arab Democracy: Lebanon Springs Forward
Taking advantage of the withdrawal of Syrian troops, Lebanese voters capped the "Beirut Spring" by electing a new majority in parliament.
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
Getting to Arab Democracy: What Do Iraqis Want?
There is a widespread desire for democracy among the Iraqi public, but when it comes to the roles of religion, ethnicity, and gender equality in Iraq's new democracy, attitudes are more varied.
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
Getting to Arab Democracy: Dealing with Communalism
Whether ethnic, sectarian, or some combination of the two, communalsim is one of the massive realities of Middle Eastern life and politics. It is usually seen as an obstacle to democracy, but need that always be the case?
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
Getting to Arab Democracy: The Promise of Pacts
Strategies based on transition pacts that reduce rulers' risks and cushion their retreat from total power may be the most promising route to democracy in the Arab world.
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
Ballots, Bribes, and State Building in Bulgaria
The successful completion of yet another general election should dispel any residual doubts about Bulgarian democracy. But the election results made clear that the country now faces a new set of challenges.
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
Postcommunist Central Banks: A Democratic Deficit?
Independent central banks throughout the former Soviet Union suffer from a dual democratic deficit. How can they gain greater democratic legitimacy without compromising their countries' economic health?
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
Russia: Authoritarianism Without Authority
Vladimir Putin has pulled the plug on democracy in Russia in an effort to strengthen the authority of the central state. But a look at Russian federal relations shows that the state is growing weaker rather than stronger.
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
The 2005 Freedom House Survey: Progress in the Middle East
The gains for freedom in the Middle East were the most significant seen since the Freedom House survey began in 1972.
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
Burundi’s Transition: A Beacon for Central Africa
After a long and bloody civil conflict, Burundi has established a new democratic regime. Does its tenuous but hopeful example hold lessons that might help its troubled neighbors?
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
Burundi’s Transition: Training Leaders for Peace
Burundi's leaders are learning to embrace a culture of discussion and consensus that offers a way out of the abyss of civil war.
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
The Surprising Significance of African Elections
Data from Africa show that repeated elections, regardless of their relative freeness or fairness,appear to have a positive impact on the growth of civil liberties and democratic values.
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
Measuring Public Integrity
Measurements that rely on perceptions of corruption can be misleading. What is needed is a method of gauging how well a country has set itself up to defend public integrity systematically and in all its dimensions.
October 2005, Volume 16, Issue 4
The Emperor Has No Clothes
What can be done with regimes that proclaim their devotion to democratic principles but violate them in practice?
October 2005, Volume 16, Issue 4
Iran’s Peculiar Election: The Conservative Wave Rolls On
The May 2005 presidential election capped a process of conservative reentrenchment, but with a surprising populist twist.
October 2005, Volume 16, Issue 4
Iran’s Peculiar Election: A Historical Perspective
The June 2005 presidential ballot marks the culmination of the regime’s effort to dominate even the limited powers of the popularly elected offices.
October 2005, Volume 16, Issue 4
Iran’s Peculiar Election: The Voice of Akbar Ganji
In the lines of suffering etched on the visage of this courageous dissident may be read the drama of Iran today.
October 2005, Volume 16, Issue 4
Iran’s Peculiar Election: The Struggle Against Sultanism
Given the unaccountable authority of the supreme leader, the Islamic Republic should be classified as a sultanistic regime. In such regimes, democratic change is more likely to come from nonviolent resistance than from internal reform.
October 2005, Volume 16, Issue 4
Iran’s Peculiar Election: The Role of Ideology
The election results reflect less what voters want than the ideological dynamics that shape the behavior of factions within the regime.
October 2005, Volume 16, Issue 4
Iran’s Peculiar Election: What Should “We” Do Now?
The large number of nonvoters suggests that the movement for a free, internationally monitored referendum on the Islamic Republic’s constitution could gain widespread support. We must now work to make that so.
October 2005, Volume 16, Issue 4
Iran’s Peculiar Election: Chinese Dreams, Persian Realities
Basic demographic and socioeconomic factors in Iran are favorable to democratization. The mullahs may hope to stave off democratic change by emulating the Chinese model, but this strategy is doomed to fail.
October 2005, Volume 16, Issue 4
Preempting Democracy: The Case of Belarus
Having drawn lessons from the downfall of some of his fellow autocrats, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka is preventing the emergence of an effective democratic movement in Belarus.
October 2005, Volume 16, Issue 4
Cambodia: Getting Away with Authoritarianism?
While Cambodia is often thought of as a “transitional” democracy and as a case where UN intervention succeeded, the truth is quite different.
October 2005, Volume 16, Issue 4
Babel in Democratization Studies
Recent works on regime types have led to confusion and a tendency to overstate the differences between established and newer democracies.