January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
China’s Changing of the Guard: State Capacity on the Rebound
The Chinese state has become more efficient, constrained, and responsive—improvements that could lay a base for a successful transition.
Section: Article
January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
China’s Changing of the Guard: The New Inequality
Class politics is an ever more important reality, but the growth of capitalism is not likely to produce pressures for democratization.
January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
China’s Changing of the Guard: The Rise of the Technocrats
With both reformists and leftists pushed aside, political center-stage now belongs to new pragmatists both inside and outside the Communist Party.
January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
China’s Changing of the Guard: A Volcanic Stability
The outward appearance of a powerful and confident Communist party-state masks a deep crisis.
January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
China’s Changing of the Guard: Contradictory Trends and Confusing Signals
Political renewal is contending with a process of political decay that has yet to reach an end.
January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
Afghanistan’s Long Road to Reconstruction
To forestall a worst-case scenario, the U.S. and the world must make a deeper commitment to peacekeeping and decentralized government.
January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
The 30th Anniversary Freedom House Survey: Liberty’s Advances in a Troubled World
The largely positive trends indicated in this year’s Freedom House Survey encourage cautious optimism on the occasion of its thirtieth anniversary.
January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
The 30th Anniversary Freedom House Survey: Modern Democracy as a System of Separations
The “system of separations” is a historic achievement that must be defended even against normatively “purer” understandings of democracy.
January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
The Deadlock in Iran: Pressures from Below
Despite today’s gridlock, there are grounds for hope in the widespread embrace of democratic ideals by young people.
January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
The Deadlock in Iran: Constitutional Constraints
The vast obstacles to democratic reformism include basic provisions in the Constitution of the Islamic Republic itself.
January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
Deliberalization in Jordan
After a decade of partial liberalization begun by the late King Hussein, freedoms are now being rolled back by an anxious regime.
January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
Montenegro: The Dilemmas of a Small Republic
October 2002 brought the latest in a series of “critical” elections that have helped to point the way to an independent, more democratic future.
January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
Turbulence and Reform in Papua New Guinea
Holding regular, free elections may not be enough to stop turbulence that threatens both the quality of democracy and the coherence of the state.
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Democratization in the Arab World?: The Decline of Pluralism in Mubarak’s Egypt
Since a tenuous political opening a decade ago, the Mubarak regime has systematically asphyxiated democracy in Egypt.
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Democratization in the Arab World?: Algeria’s Uneasy Peace
While many obstacles to democracy gravely mar Algeria's political life, the country's trajectory still affords some grounds for guarded optimism.
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Democratization in the Arab World?: Depoliticization in Morocco
Since the 1950s, Morocco has engaged in reforms that have established a relatively open political and economic system, but democracy has not gained much in the bargain.
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Democratization in the Arab World?: Stirrings in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia would seem to exemplify full-blown authoritarianism. Yet there are trends pushing the country toward more open politics.
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Democratization in the Arab World?: Emirs and Parliaments in the Gulf
How well-founded are Western concerns that the nascent parliaments of Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain will be captured by antidemocratic Islamists and lead to the ‘Talibanization’ of the Gulf?
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Democratization in the Arab World?: Yemen’s Aborted Opening
While President Ali ABdallah Salih continues to call Yemen an ’emerging democracy,’ it more closely resembles athe autocracy of the pre-unification North.
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Democratization in the Arab World? The Trap of Liberalized Autocracy
Politics in the Arab Middle East is often a matter of powerholders first liberalizing — and then "deliberalizing" — public life in order to first maintain their rule. But this "survival strategy" is a dead end.
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Financing Politics: A Global View
Though it is a burning issue in many countries, the question of money and politics is seldom studied on a worldwide scale.
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Zimbabwe’s Hijacked Election
Realizing that power would slip from his grasp if he allowed an honest presidential election in 2002, longtime strongman Robert Mugabe resorted to antidemocratic tactics that set a new low in cruelty and dishonesty.
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
How Muslims View Democracy: Evidence from Central Asia
What do Muslims think about democracy? Although reliable evidence is hard to come by, survey data from Central Asia open a window on this matter of vital concern in the Muslim world and beyond.
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Democracy Under Stress in Thaksin’s Thailand
In 1997, Thailand adopted constitutional reforms. Now, five years after the reforms and almost two years into the premiership of Thaksin Shinawatra, we can see the gaps and ironies that the reforms left behind.
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Pluralism by Default in Moldova
During the 1990s, politics in the small post-Soviet state of Moldova was more competitive than anyone would have expected. Yet there was less to this surprising pluralism than met the eye.
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Dark Days in Belarus
Why did Belarusians return dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka to power in September 2001? Could a better-managed opposition campaign have made a difference?
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Post-Election Blues in Ukraine
In March 2002, three-fifths of Ukraine’s voters chose a party or coalition opposed to the overbearing presidential apparatus of Leonid Kuchma, but the antipresidential forces found themselves frozen out in the new parliament.
October 2002, Volume 13, Issue 4
Post-Coup Politics in the Gambia
The Gambia provides a lesson in how authoritarians can hold votes yet rob their people of the power that the ballot box is supposed to give them.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Debating the Transition Paradigm: In Partial Defense of an Evanescent “Paradigm”
The coauthor of the seminal work on democratic transitions sets the record straight on what the scholarly literature actually says.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Debating the Transition Paradigm: The Democratic Path
The notion of countries being on the “path to democracy” remains valid unless and until they come up with a systemic alternative to democracy.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Debating the Transition Paradigm: Retaining the Human Dimension
Democracy promotion is a cause-oriented mission, but a good deal of hard-headed realism goes into program planning and work.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Debating the Transition Paradigm: Tilting at Straw Men
A leading democracy specialist at the U.S. Agency for International Development defends his organization’s approach.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Debating the Transition Paradigm: A Reply to My Critics
The author of “The End of the Transition Paradigm” responds to each of his critics in turn.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
The Balkans: Democracy Without Choices
The gravest challenges facing democracy in the Balkans are problems not of ethnicity or postcommunism, but of citizen disaffection and disillusionment.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Globalization and Self-Government
Until now, globalization and democratization have been mutually reinforcing, but in the future globalization may pose serious challenges for democracy.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Democracy in Real Time
Globalization has fostered the spread of “democracy as procedure,” but it is much less favorable to the spread of “democracy as culture.”
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Nicaragua Votes: The Elections of 2001
The November elections were peaceful and competitive. For the third straight time, voters chose a conservative who embraced democratic liberties.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Middle East Studies After 9/11: Time for an Audit
Talk about the Middle East and those who study it has become understandably heated. But we can learn more through a calm assessment of the achievements and weaknesses of this field.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Middle East Studies After 9/11: Defending the Discipline
Is the field of Middle East studies as badly flawed as some critics charge? A fair-minded look at the last 10 or 15 years of research suggests otherwise.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Middle East Studies After 9/11: Islamists and the Politics of Consensus
Middle Eastern autocracies rely ever more on repression of both their Islamist and secular critics, and therefore increasingly fear that any opening will be uncontrollable. Is there a way out?
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Middle East Studies After 9/11: An Exit from Arab Autocracy
While many experts recommend postponing democratization pending the rise of a middle class, a directly political strategy may well be better.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Africa: The Limits of Power-Sharing
Often recommended as a means of ending intractable civil wars, power-sharing may in fact be least likely to work when it is most needed.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Clans, Pacts, and Politics in Central Asia
This region’s five republics have just lived through a remarkable first decade of independence that raises questions about “preconditions”-based theories of democratization.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Cape Verde: An African Exception
The small, Portuguese-speaking island republic of Cape Verde offers a suggestive case study of successful democratic consolidation.
April 2002, Volume 13, Issue 2
Terror, Islam, and Democracy
Although Islamist terror groups invoke a host of religious references, the real source of their ideas is not the Koran but rather Leninism, fascism, and other strains of twentieth-century thought that exalt totalitarian violence.
April 2002, Volume 13, Issue 2
Elections Without Democracy: Thinking About Hybrid Regimes
Many countries have adopted the form of democracy with little of its substance. This makes the task of classifying regimes more difficult, but also more important.
April 2002, Volume 13, Issue 2
Elections Without Democracy: The Menu of Manipulation
Elections, usually taken to be a hallmark of democracy, can also become a tool of authoritarian powerholders seeking to legitimate their rule.
April 2002, Volume 13, Issue 2
Elections Without Democracy: The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism
In recent years, new types of nondemocratic government have come to the fore, notably competitive authoritarianism. Such regimes, though not democratic, feature arenas of contestation in which opposition forces can challenge, and even oust, authoritarian incumbents.
April 2002, Volume 13, Issue 2
Elections Without Democracy: Africa’s Range of Regimes
Today, Africa south of the Sahara has a relatively small number of both democracies and full-blown dictatorships,along with a large number of hard-to-define regimes that fit neither category.
April 2002, Volume 13, Issue 2
Argentina: Crisis and Democratic Consolidation
Argentina made headlines around the world last December as its presidency changed hands no fewer than four times in less than two weeks. Lost amid the chaos, however, were hopeful signs that the country has now turned the corner of democratic consolidation.
April 2002, Volume 13, Issue 2
A New Look at Federalism: The Import of Institutions
A new research project suggests that federalism enhances the ability of regimes to accommodate territorially based minorities. Federal systems, except when imposed by an outside power, significantly help to preserve the peace.
April 2002, Volume 13, Issue 2
A New Look at Federalism: Electoral Rules and Governability
The effects of electoral systems and of federalism are usually examined separately, but a review of the leading federations shows that it is essential to consider the interaction between the two in designing democratic institutions.
April 2002, Volume 13, Issue 2
A New Look at Federalism: Italy Decentralizes
Italy has long mixed great local and regional diversity with a unitary approach to governance. In October 2001, however, Italian voters approved a series of changes to their country’s Constitution that could mark a decisive turn toward federalism.
April 2002, Volume 13, Issue 2
Bulgaria’s Royal Elections
Last year, Bulgarians elected their newly returned former king as prime minister and then, in a shocking upset, ousted their incumbent president. What do these results portend for the future of Bulgarian democracy?
April 2002, Volume 13, Issue 2
Electoral Systems for Divided Societies
Political scientists have long theorized that the use of “preferential” election systems can help promote successful conflict management in divided societies. As it turns out, evidence from five real-world cases supports this conclusion.
January 2002, Volume 13, Issue 1
South Africa: Democracy Without the People?
A decade after the end of apartheid, South African democracy may be headed for trouble because the country has yet to fulfill the three requirements of democratic consolidation: inequality-reducing economic growth, stable institutions, and a supportive political culture.
January 2002, Volume 13, Issue 1
South Asia Faces the Future: India’s Multiple Revolutions
Over the last two decades, India has gone through a series of peaceful revolutions-in society, in economic life, and in the political system-that have strengthened Indian democracy and given it a basis on which to thrive in decades to come.
January 2002, Volume 13, Issue 1
South Asia Faces the Future: New Dimensions in Indian Democracy
India defies the widely held view that poor societies are unlikely to remain democratic. What explains the resilience of India’s democracy in the face of long odds? The answer lies in the ways the country has responded to the varied challenges of the past decade.
January 2002, Volume 13, Issue 1
South Asia Faces the Future: Democracy on Hold in Pakistan
After September 11 and the start of the U.S.-led war on terrorists in Afghanistan, the Pakistani military regime of Pervez Musharraf found itself at the center of world attention. What do these new and dramatically changed circumstances portend for a possible return to elected, civilian rule in Islamabad?
January 2002, Volume 13, Issue 1
South Asia Faces the Future: Back and Forth in Bangladesh
Recent parliamentary elections showed the continuing strengths and weaknesses of Bangladeshi democracy. Although the country does have strong political parties and a decade of democratic elections, the intense antipathy between government and opposition will continue to cause problems well into the future.
January 2002, Volume 13, Issue 1
South Asia Faces the Future: Illiberalism and Ethnic Conflict in Sri Lanka
Irresponsible leadership and ill-designed institutions have made this island republic prey to a bitter and violent ethnic conflict that is threatening to undermine democracy itself.
January 2002, Volume 13, Issue 1
The 2001 Freedom House Survey: Muslim Countries and the Democracy Gap
The year 2001 saw modest gains in the strengthening and consolidation of democracy worldwide, but in predominantly Muslim countries—especially the Arab states—the status of freedom and democracy lags far behind the rest of the world.
January 2002, Volume 13, Issue 1
What Democracy Can Do for East Asia
The implicit social bargain that carried many East Asian countries through the Cold War has lost its currency. If the peoples of this region are to secure the blessings of peace, liberty, and prosperity in the century ahead, they will need to have a new and explicitly democratic bargain working for them.
January 2002, Volume 13, Issue 1
Slovenia’s Smooth Transition
The story of this small former Yugoslav republic offers an example of how—if circumstances are right—it may be possible for a country to reform its way out of communism and into parliamentary democracy and a market economy.
January 2002, Volume 13, Issue 1
Mozambique: A Fading UN Success Story
The United Nations did superb work in helping Mozambique to end its long-festering civil war and start down the path to recovery, but those gains could slip away amid ominous conditions of partisan polarization, excessive political centralization, and a winner-takes-everything electoral system.
January 2002, Volume 13, Issue 1
The Weakness of Postcommunist Civil Society
Recent studies suggest that civil society in the postcommunist countries is significantly weaker than in other types of democracies, old or new. Can this legacy of communism be overcome? If not, what are the implications for democracy?
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Hong Kong: The Perils of Semidemocracy
Hong Kong has experienced a smooth transition from British to Chinese rule, but signs of political, economic, and social malaise mean that further steps toward fuller democracy are needed.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Ten Years After the Soviet Breakup: The Primacy of History and Culture
The 15 states of the former Soviet fall into three broad categories, largely defined by fault lines of history and culture.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Ten Years After the Soviet Breakup: The Impact of Nationalism
To grasp what is happening in the former USSR, we must examine the types of nationalism that flourish there.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Ten Years After the Soviet Breakup: From Democratization to Guided Democracy
Except for the Baltic states, the countries of the former Soviet Union may be less democratic today than in the last years of the USSR.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Ten Years After the Soviet Breakup: The Advantages of Radical Reform
The failures of post-Soviet reform notwithstanding, serious strides have been made toward economic and political transformation.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Ten Years After the Soviet Breakup: Disillusionment in the Caucasus and Central Asia
In the southern reaches of what was once the USSR, democracy seems far off. Can that change?
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Ten Years After the Soviet Breakup: Sovereignty and Uncertainty in Ukraine
Ukraine has secured its independence, but remains troubled by slow growth, corruption, and an overly strong presidency.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Ten Years After the Soviet Breakup: Russia’s Hybrid Regime
In Russia, formally democratic institutions coexist uneasily with the reality of tightly consolidated bureaucratic and executive power.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Ten Years After the Soviet Breakup: Putin’s Path
Although his methods are hardly democratic, Putin’s efforts to strengthen the Russian state may help democracy in the long term.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Ten Years After the Soviet Breakup: Going Backwards
A leading Russian oppositionist speaks out against continuing official assaults on self-government and human rights.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Ten Years After the Soviet Breakup: A Mixed Record, An Uncertain Future
Despite huge changes, the events of the last ten years raise doubts about the notion of “democratic transition” itself.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
How Burma Could Democratize
How can Burma peacefully move away from military rule and toward a stable democratic system based on sound electoral and federal arrangements?
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Why Direct Election Failed in Israel
Israel began directly electing its prime minister in 1992, only to abandon this change less than ten years later. What came between was a series of hard lessons in the unintended consequences or reform.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
The OAS in Peru: A Model for the Future?
In Peru in 2000, the OAS made an unprecedented diplomatic intervention in a member state. Could this be a model for the future?
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
The OAS in Peru: Room for Improvement
Although the OAS helped, sudden public revelations of corruption in Peru were more important.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Public Opinion and Direct Democracy
Direct democracy has come in for praise as being closer to the people’s will than representative democracy. A closer look at the sources of public support, however, reveals some surprises.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Whatever Happened to “Asian Values”?
In the wake of the East Asian economic crisis of 1997-98, how has the appeal to “Asian Values” fared as a rhetorical prop for undemocratic rule?
July 2001, Volume 12, Issue 3
History and Memory: The Revolutions of 1989-91
There has been surprisingly little celebration of the tenth anniversary of the revolutions that brought down communism. The exaggerated hopes of the time have given way to disillusionment, but the real achievements of many of the postcommunist countries should not be discounted.
July 2001, Volume 12, Issue 3
Bringing Democracy into International Law
The evidence clearly points to the growing incorporation into international law of the right to democratic governance.
July 2001, Volume 12, Issue 3
Francophone Africa in Flux: Democratization in Fits and Starts
The 1990s began with an unprecedented democratic opening in Francophone Africa. While a number of countries have suffered setbacks and even reversals, others continue to make progress, and popular aspirations for democracy remain strong.
July 2001, Volume 12, Issue 3
Francophone Africa in Flux: Political Turnover and Social Change in Senegal
In 2000, Senegal experienced its first-ever electoral victory by an opposition candidate. Yet the social foundations that have supported one of Africa’s most liberal regimes are shifting, with unpredictable consequences.
July 2001, Volume 12, Issue 3
Francophone Africa in Flux: Ethnicity and Political Crisis in Côte d’Ivoire
Following a military coup in 1999 and flawed and violence-ridden elections in 2000, democracy in Côte d’Ivoire faces an uphill battle against the forces of xenophobia and ethnic chauvinism.
July 2001, Volume 12, Issue 3
Francophone Africa in Flux: Mali’s Decade of Democracy
Since 1992, Mali has managed to preserve its democracy in the face of great odds. Continued vigilance will be needed, however, to prevent the gains of the past decade from slipping away.
July 2001, Volume 12, Issue 3
Francophone Africa in Flux: Niger Gets Back on Track
After a failed democratic experiment in 1993-96 and two military coups, Niger successfully held free and fair elections in 1999. The next couple of years will be crucial to the long-term survival of democracy.
July 2001, Volume 12, Issue 3
Francophone Africa in Flux: Mauritania’s Stalled Democratization
Contrary to the widespread perception that Mauritania has moved toward democracy, this troubled country faces continued ethnic tensions and the prospect of increasing repression.
July 2001, Volume 12, Issue 3
Serbia’s Prudent Revolution
A bloodless revolution toppled the corruption-ridden 13-year-old regime of Slobodan Milosevic and brought to power a team led by committed democrats. Although strains exist within the new 18-party ruling coalition, there are strong reasons for it to hold together during the current period of transition.
July 2001, Volume 12, Issue 3
Women and Democracy: Regional Differences and Contrasting Views
An increase in women’s political mobilization has accompanied the global trend toward democratization, but women’s movements have taken diverse paths in different regions of the world.
July 2001, Volume 12, Issue 3
Women and Democracy: Cultural Obstacles to Equal Representation
A country’s level of female political representation cannot be explained solely in terms of socioeconomic factors and political institutions. The evidence shows that political culture also matters.
July 2001, Volume 12, Issue 3
Women and Democracy: The New Political Activism in Africa
Though the proportion of women in political office remains lower in Africa than in most other regions, African women exhibited new political energy and made unprecedented progress during the past decade.
July 2001, Volume 12, Issue 3
Romania’s Politics of Dejection
The elections of 2000 reflected the profound disillusionment of the Romanian electorate with the performance of the centrist government of the past four years, rather than a turn away from democracy itself.
April 2001, Volume 12, Issue 2
High Anxiety in the Andes: Bolivia and the Viability of Democracy
One key source of the weakness of democracy in the Andean region is the isolation of the “political class” from the rest of society. There are growing signs that this problem is becoming more serious in Bolivia.
April 2001, Volume 12, Issue 2
High Anxiety in the Andes: The Real Story Behind Venezuela’s Woes
The conventional wisdom about Venezuela’s plight is largely mistaken. Only when Venezuelans recognize the real causes of their woes will they be able to make progress in overcoming them.
April 2001, Volume 12, Issue 2
High Anxiety in the Andes: Colombia’s Perpetual Quest for Peace
Despite recent progress in the government’s negotiations with rebel groups, Colombia’s problems remain acute: continued violence, growing human rights abuses, severe income inequality, and a depressed economy.
April 2001, Volume 12, Issue 2
High Anxiety in the Andes: Peru’s Decade of Living Dangerously
The sudden and surprising downfall of President Alberto Fujimori has opened the way for a return to democracy in Peru, but the country’s new leaders will face major challenges in the coming years.