Competitive Authoritarianism in America
The United States has slid into competitive authoritarianism. The slide has been modest and remains reversible—but it is real. Even after Donald Trump, American democracy will remain fragile.
Volume 37, Issue 4
The United States has slid into competitive authoritarianism. The slide has been modest and remains reversible—but it is real. Even after Donald Trump, American democracy will remain fragile.
Mass movements topple dictators but struggle to secure democracy afterward. The theory of nonviolent struggle is not broken; it is out of date. Regimes have adapted their repression—movements must now adapt their strategies.
Social media inspired revolutions that autocrats quickly smothered. Digital payments are different: Rulers cannot switch them off without ruining their own economies. Quietly, they enrich citizens, broaden markets, and build the foundations for a freer society.
AI gives autocrats unprecedented powers of surveillance, but seeing is not enforcing. Authoritarians still rely on coercion, and a regime’s henchmen can shirk, defect, or disobey. The costs for autocrats will rise in unexpected ways.
Bureaucrats who slow-walk, leak, and refuse to cooperate have long been democracy’s quiet sentinels. But autocrats armed with AI surveillance will root them out—unless democracies build new legal shields around the administrative state.
For the first time in a century, every great power is autocratic or heading that way. In a post-unipolar world, strongmen shop for patrons and make deals while democrats increasingly are on the defensive.
Inequality fuels democratic decay almost everywhere, yet South Korea and Taiwan keep thriving. Their secret is the welfare state: Universal healthcare, pensions, and social protection have given citizens concrete reasons to trust democracy.
Americans have never been angrier with one another. But polarization is not the disease—it is the response to a revanchist movement seeking to roll back sixty years of social progress.
A wealthy, high-quality democracy has seized up. No populist, no stolen election—just divided government colliding with a constitution built for single-party rule. With Beijing watching, the stakes for Taiwan could not be higher.
Opposition parties cannot defeat backsliding incumbents alone, but big united fronts often fail, too. The important choice lies between unity coalitions and quiet ones—and knowing which to choose can make all the difference.
Independent journalism is under siege from lawsuits, shutdowns, and digital dominance. Good reporting is no longer enough: The media must win distribution, build solidarity networks, diversify funding, and connect the consequences of democratic erosion to daily life.
When elected leaders attack the courts, judges rarely prevail on their own. Across 25 cases of backsliding, judicial independence survived only where legislators, protesters, and international institutions stood ready to defend it.
Autocrats look invincible until their allies start to walk away. Defections have brought down regimes from Guatemala to Hungary, and they can be engineered: Raise the costs of standing with the autocrat and ease the path out.
Opposition movements have begun to question the power of taking to the street. But protest matters in backsliding democracies when it builds opposition strength—politicizing new voters, emboldening institutions, and fracturing the ruling coalition.