Why Bolivia’s Election Matters So Much

The small South American country has become a strategic foothold for authoritarian powers. Its election is hugely important for the future of democracy across the region.

By Jhanisse Vaca Daza

August 2025

Bolivians head to the polls this Sunday, August 17, to vote in an election that will determine far more than who governs next. Amid a deep economic crisis, political instability, and a surge in foreign authoritarian influence, Sunday’s ballot will test whether Bolivia — a fragile democracy at the heart of South America — can resist permanent capture by authoritarian powers at home and abroad.

Over the past decade, Bolivia has become a strategic foothold for China, Russia, and Iran in Latin America. Beijing has poured more than US$3 billion into critical sectors such as lithium and energy. Moscow has signed direct military and intelligence cooperation agreements. Tehran has built a network of diplomatic, medical, and intelligence projects so influential that some analysts call Bolivia “Iran’s most successful foreign policy project in Latin America.” These alliances not only push Bolivia’s future further toward the authoritarian camp, they also strengthen authoritarian regimes in neighboring Nicaragua and Venezuela.

The choice facing Bolivians is not abstract. The outcome will determine whether Bolivia reasserts its independence and democratic future, or allows the global autocratic alliance to grow stronger.

The ruling Movement to Socialism (MAS) party has split into three factions, with the largest led by Andrónico Rodríguez, a protégé of former president Evo Morales (2006–19). Rodríguez, the current Senate president, has positioned himself as the face of continuity for MAS’s populist, resource-nationalist policies and alliances with authoritarian powers abroad. The fragmented opposition is rallying behind either businessman Samuel Doria Medina or former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga (2001–2002), both running for president on platforms that promise economic stabilization, renewed ties with democratic nations, and institutional reforms. Polls suggest a tight race, although both opposition candidates are polling ahead of MAS’s Rodríguez. The fractured electorate heightens the possibility of violence in this election.

Adding to the risk of conflict, this election takes place under the shadow of the 2019 electoral crisis, when the Supreme Electoral Tribunal abruptly suspended the quick count (the automatic, electronic vote count) of the presidential race between Evo Morales and Carlos Mesa. The release of the official count sparked confusion and accusations of fraud, and triggered national mass protests.

This year, depleted reserves, rising inflation, and declining public trust strain the economy and heighten tensions. In recent weeks, Morales himself, who is barred from running, has openly threatened unrest if the results do not favor MAS, while his allies have issued even more explicit warnings of violence. For example, Ruth Nina, a lawyer and close ally of Morales, threatened outright that “instead of counting votes, they’re going to count the dead.”

Several outcomes are possible. If no candidate wins an outright majority or at least 40 percent of the vote by a ten-point margin, a runoff between Rodríguez and Doria Medina or Quiroga would be a critical test of whether MAS would accept defeat. A first-round MAS victory could trigger backlash from sectors of civil society that distrust the electoral process, especially given that current polls show only about 7 percent of voters intend to select MAS candidate Rodríguez on election day. And in the worst-case scenario, systemic failures — whether due to technical error, intentional manipulation, or both — could plunge the country into a violent crisis with competing claims over the results.

Against this backdrop, citizen-led monitoring efforts are not just an exercise in transparency but a necessary defense against a repeat of past democratic breakdowns.

I lead Cuidemos el Voto (“Let’s Protect the Vote”), a nationwide citizen-led election monitoring initiative. In a country with weak electoral oversight, we are deploying a model that blends grassroots organization with cutting-edge technology. We have recruited 37,000 volunteers in just one month — the highest number of any electoral-monitoring effort in Bolivia’s history, and an outstanding one even by international standards, especially for a country of our size. We are training volunteers online and in person, in cities and in rural areas, to observe polling stations, document results, and share them instantly through our mobile app. Artificial intelligence will analyze these reports in real time, comparing them with official tallies to flag discrepancies.

While leading this effort has come with its challenges, including threats to myself and my team’s safety, we know that this effort is more than simply election monitoring. This project transcends Bolivia: It offers a blueprint for defending the vote in countries where democratic institutions are under attack. If it succeeds here, it can be adapted elsewhere, strengthening democracy in the hemisphere’s most vulnerable places.

Bolivia’s dire economic situation adds to the urgency of this project. Our economy is deteriorating, reserves are depleted, and inflation is rising. Morales has stoked instability, calling for null votes and warning of unrest if the results do not favor MAS. In this climate, the risk of postelection crisis is high, and so is the risk to our work.

Yet our response has been peaceful and determined. Tens of thousands of Bolivians, diverse in age, region, and politics, have united to protect the integrity of the vote. That so many have joined as volunteers, without pay and without fear, is proof that the democratic instinct in my country runs deeper than the divisions our leaders try to exploit.

We at Cuidemos el Voto ask the world to watch Bolivia closely. International and domestic observer missions will be on the ground, but they need global backing in order to publish results and find peaceful solutions to any conflicts that may arise. The attention of engaged allies, including governments, journalists, and civil society actors, deters manipulation and strengthens those of us working for transparency.

Bolivia is not just another small democracy holding an election. It is a nation rich in strategic resources, sitting at the crossroads of the Andes and the Amazon, and increasingly targeted by authoritarian powers. What happens here will ripple across the region.

On August 17, Bolivians will decide more than our next government: We will decide whether our vote belongs to us or to forces beyond our borders. For the sake of democracy in Bolivia and across the Americas, the world should stand with us.

Jhanisse Vaca Daza is an activism outreach specialist and director of the Freedom Fellowship program at the Human Rights Foundation and cofounder of the Bolivian nonviolent citizen movement Ríos de Pie (Spanish for Standing Rivers).

Copyright © 2025 National Endowment for Democracy

Image credit: Jorge Mateo Romay Salinas/Anadolu via Getty Images