Read the full essay here.
The essay analyzes Uganda’s precarious “late Museveni” period, which is marked by an aging president, extreme personalization of power, and growing militarization. It shows how decisionmaking has shifted from formal institutions to an inner circle centered on Museveni’s family, and especially his son, who controls key military structures and openly pursues succession. Rising repression, ethnicized patronage, and the dominance of Western-Uganda elites intensify tensions with marginalized groups such as the Baganda. Looking beyond the 2026 elections, the essay argues that Uganda’s transition will likely be shaped by the first family, the army, ethnic dynamics, and regional powers, with significant risks of instability.
Image Credit: Iranian Presidency/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images