The 2016 campaign ended with a surprising and inconclusive outcome: Hillary Clinton won the popular vote comfortably but lost the Electoral College to Donald Trump. We identify three factors that help explain this outcome. First, fundamental economic and political trends favored a Democratic popular vote win. Second, the party coalitions had become more polarized by race and education during Obama’s presidency. Third, Trump’s focus on issues connected to ethnic and social identities made attitudes toward immigration and African-Americans more important in voters’ choices in 2016 than they had been in 2012.
About the Authors
John Sides
John Sides is associate professor of political science at George Washington University.
Reformist leaders offered order, stability, and progress. But the country’s deep-seated political pathologies have proven far more durable than their promises.
Since the 1990s, Moroccan civil society groups have been proliferating, and they are increasingly influential in addressing society-wide matters including the rights of women, ethnic minorities, and the poor.