The flawed 2020 Tanzanian elections are typically blamed on an authoritarian turn instigated by the late President John Magufuli (1959–2021). This articles argues that focusing excessively on Magufuli obscures the authoritarian foundations of CCM rule: The strategies used to maintain political control under his tenure have deep roots, and have not taken CCM off a democratizing path it was never on in the first place. This conclusion underlines the risks of viewing leaders through rose-tinted glasses: Charismatic individuals can claim the reformer’s mantle, but giving them too much credence before structural reforms are implemented sells democracy short and increases the risk of authoritarian relapse.
About the Authors
Nic Cheeseman
Nic Cheeseman is professor of democracy at the University of Birmingham and founding director of its Centre for Elections, Democracy, Accountability and Representation (CEDAR). His most recent book is The Rise of Authoritarian Middle-Powers and What It Means for World Politics (2025), coauthored with Marie-Eve Desrosiers.
The country's long-ruling party has never faced a serious electoral challenge—due not only to opposition weakness but also to a deliberate strategy of suppression.
Since Tanzania’s 2015 elections, rising repression and opposition protest have displaced an older dynamic of comparatively restrained and unchallenged dominance by the ruling party.
With brutal resolve, the ruling party sought not merely to win an election, but to annihilate the opposition. Now, with President John Magufuli gone, that strategic rationale will likely only…
