Change may be caused more by the frailty of the regime than the strength of the opposition, but in such cases the outcome is often less democratic.
The Belarusian presidential election of March 2006 appeared to be an exercise in meaninglessness, while the protests against manipulation by the Lukashenka regime seemed a study in futility. But appearances can deceive.
Having drawn lessons from the downfall of some of his fellow autocrats, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka is preventing the emergence of an effective democratic movement in Belarus.
A review of The Case for Democracy: The Power of Freedom to Overcome Tyranny and Terror by Natan Sharansky