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Johns Hopkins Univ. Press
January 2003

January 2003, Volume 14, Number 1

Afghanistan's Long Road to Reconstruction
Larry Goodson

Political order can only be reconstructed with a sweeping decentralization of government and much more robust international peacekeeping.

China's Changing of the Guard

  • Authoritarian Resilience
    Andrew J. Nathan

    Successful institutionalization will help the regime survive the pressures of advanced modernization and integration with the global economy.


  • The Limits of Authoritarian Resilience
    Bruce Gilley

    The regime has only institutionalized itself partially and temporarily; institutional norms are currently eroding, and this is likely to continue.


  • Threats to Party Supremacy
    Bruce J. Dickson

    The Communist Party's adaptation to China's new social elites will lead to a democratic transition only, if at all, at the expense of regime continuity.


  • The Problem of State Weakness
    Shaoguang Wang

    The Chinese state is much weaker than most people realize, which bodes ill for the country's democratic prospects.


  • State Capacity on the Rebound
    Dali L. Yang

    The Chinese state has become more efficient, constrained, and responsive-improvements that could lay a base for a successful transition.


  • The New Inequality
    An Chen

    Class politics is an ever more important reality, but the growth of capitalism is not likely to produce pressures for democratization.


  • The Rise of the Technocrats
    Gongqin Xiao

    With both reformists and leftists pushed aside, political center-stage now belongs to new pragmatists both inside and outside the Communist Party.


  • A Volcanic Stability
    Qinglian He

    The outward appearance of a powerful and confident Communist party-state masks a deep crisis.


  • Contradictory Trends and Confusing Signals
    Minxin Pei

    Political renewal is contending with a process of political decay that has yet to reach an end.
The 30th Anniversary Freedom House Survey: Liberty's Advances in a Troubled World
Adrian Karatnycky

The largely positive trends indicated in this year's Freedom House Survey encourage cautious optimism on the occasion of its thirtieth anniversary.

Modern Democracy as a System of Separations
Pierre Manent

The "system of separations" is a historic achievement that must be defended even against normatively "purer" understandings of democracy.

The Deadlock in Iran

  • Pressures from Below
    Ramin Jahanbegloo

    Despite today's gridlock, there are grounds for hope in the widespread embrace of democratic ideals by young people.


  • Constitutional Constraints
    Mehrangiz Kar

    The vast obstacles to democratic reform include basic provisions in the Constitution of the Islamic Republic itself.
Deliberalization in Jordan
Russell E. Lucas

After a decade of partial liberalization begun by the late King Hussein, freedoms are now being rolled back by an anxious regime.

Montenegro: The Dilemmas of a Small Republic
Srdjan Darmanovic

October 2002 brought the latest in a series of "critical" elections that have helped to point the way to an independent, more democratic future.

Turbulence and Reform in Papua New Guinea
R.J. May

Holding regular, free elections may not be enough to stop turbulence that threatens both the quality of democracy and the coherence of the state.

Books in Review

  • Character and Leadership
    Daniel Mahoney

    A review of The Politics of Moral Capital by John Kane.


  • Latin Democracy, Comprehensively
    Mark P. Jones

    A review of Democracies in Development: Politics and Reform in Latin America by J. Mark Payne et al.

Election Watch

  • Brief reports on elections in Bahrain, Bosnia, Brazil, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Jamaica, Latvia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Morocco, Pakistan, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Turkey.

Documents on Democracy

  • An excerpt from a manifesto by imprisoned Iranian journalist Akbar Ganji, calling for the establishment of secular democracy in Iran.


  • Excerpts from remarks delivered at the National Democratic Institute's September 30th award ceremony honoring the Organization of American States and Oswaldo Paya of the Varela Project in Cuba.


  • Excerpts from the "Community of Democracies Statement on Terrorism," adopted at the Second Ministerial Meeting of the Community of Democracies in November 2002.

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